Big Ten Basketball 2023 Preview
We are now less than four weeks away from college basketball folks. The best time of the year is nearly upon us. Throughout the leadup to tipoff, we will be previewing each of the big six conferences in CBB. First up is the conference I am most immersed in, the Big Ten. The teams will be split up into 4 tiers, and towards the end I will give my end of season predictions for the conference.
National Title Good
Michigan State
The Big Ten boasts two legitimate national championship contenders. Both contenders return a majority of their production from last year. Michigan State, my pick to win the regular season, has one of the best backcourts in the country. Not only is their backcourt deep, it is also a very experienced group. Tom Izzo will most likely roll out a similar lineup to last year. Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard, and Jaden Akins are all upperclassmen ready to contribute. Walker is the late game killer. Izzo will lean on his lead guard to close out games late in the year. Hoggard is the Swiss Army Knife, and Akins is the lightning in a bottle type athlete who could be in line for a massive jump this year. Two of the three guards landed on the Preseason All-Big Ten Team:
The frontcourt is no slouch either. Malik Hall is possibly the best player on the Spartans. Mady Sissoko showed flashes of brilliance in his last year. Jaxson Kohler’s Freshman year was promising. But it’s the pair of Freshman that has East Lansing excited for 2023. Xavier Booker, a top 15 recruit in the country, could be starting by the end of the year. Coen Carr is a top 30 recruit, and is already the most athletic player in the Big Ten. The freshman frontcourt of Booker and Carr will likely determine how far this Spartans team can go.
Purdue
Purdue ended their season on a sour note last year. The Boilermakers became just the second One-Seed to lose to a Sixteen-Seed in the NCAA Tournament. Rather than hitting the portal hard, Matt Painter stuck with his guys and the Boilers are largely the same team they were last year. He is going all in on the young backcourt of Braden Smith and Fletcher Lloyer. Down the stretch last year, it seemed like they tightened up and hit a wall. Purdue needs the two of them to grow to go deep into the tournament. Zach Edey is Zach Edey, I don’t need to talk about him too much. Edey will likely win Big Ten Player of the Year again.
Outside of those three, Freshman Myles Colvin and transfer Lance Jones are expected to play a big role off the bench. Colvin committed relatively early into his recruiting cycle, and has repeated that he felt like West Lafayette was home. Colvin brings a lot of athleticism to a team that lacks it. Lance Jones should be a stabilizing force to a inexperienced backcourt.
Both Michigan State and Purdue return a lot of their production from last year. They will likely be atop of the inaugural AP poll. I give the slight edge to Michigan State due to experience, backcourt play, and coaching.
Should Make The Tournament
Maryland
Kevin Willard’s first year at Maryland was a resounding success. The Terps made the tournament as an 8 seed in 2022. Maryland’s success was largely due to their star guard Jahmir Young. Young is one of the best scorers in the Big Ten. Outside of Hakim Hart, Willard’s squad did not lose much production heading into 2023. They also brought in one of the best Freshman that will enter the Big Ten this year: Deshawn Harris-Smith. The two way guard will hopefully bring some defensive intensity to the backcourt. Returning veterans Julian Reese and Donta Scott will make up the rest of the Terps scoring. Maryland will be tough to beat in the Big Ten this year, and should be a lock to make the NCAA Tournament in 2023.
Indiana
I am higher than most on the Hoosiers this year. After losing Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino to the NBA, many doubt where the scoring will come from. It is a valid concern, but I am confident in the people Mike Woodson brought in. Indiana landed Kel’el Ware, Payton Sparks, and Anthony Walker in the transfer portal. They also bring in three freshman ready to play a big role: Gabe Cupps, Jakai Newton, and the star of the class, Mackenzie Mgbako. Woodson recently revealed that Mgbako will be relied upon early in his career.
Sophomores Kaleb Banks, CJ Gunn, and Malik Reneau are also expected to take another jump. I believe the veteran backcourt of Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway will lead this team to its third consecutive tournament appearance.
Wisconsin
It was a disappointing year for the Badgers in ’23. A sub .500 record in conference play had some calling for Greg Gard to be fired. Do not fret Badger fans, Wisconsin will be pesky yet again. While I’m not the biggest fan of Chucky Hepburn in a lead guard role, the rest of the roster should be able to keep the team afloat when Hepburn goes cold. Guards AJ Storr and Connor Essegian are heavily expected to make the jump to an All-Conference team. Forwards Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl will be solid yet again this year. Internet sensation “Gus Bus” Yalden could bring some juice to a Badgers team that has a reputation of being boring to watch. Greg Gard’s squad will hopefully be back in the mix for the Big Ten title.
We Shall See
Illinois
Many project Illinois to be amongst the top four in the Big Ten this year. I think there are a couple of questions that need to be asked before I can put them with the big boys. First, who is playing point guard? The Terrence Shannon experiment did not work when he was moved to the point. The Illini will likely have to rely upon an underclassmen guard to lead their offense. In a conference full of great guards, can U of I keep themselves in games? Terrence Shannon is a stud, and should be more comfortable moving back to an off-the-ball role.
Coleman Hawkins is a potential All-Conference player, but will have to get rid of the ups and downs of his play style. Dain Dainja has potential, but will be put to the test in the best big man conference in America. If all goes well for Illinois, they will make the tournament. If not, it could be a disaster season for the Illini.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes are losing a ton of production from last year’s squad. This will be the first time in forever that Fran McCaffrey will not have an All-American on the roster. While there are a lot of questions about the roster, that Iowa offense will always be potent. The Sandfort brothers will bomb threes all year long. Tony Perkins must anchor down a questionable Iowa defense. Valparaiso transfer Ben Krikke is expected to be a key contributor down the stretch. This is undoubtedly the worst roster the Hawkeyes have had in the past five years. However, I still trust Coach McCaffrey to lead an elite offense which could back its way into the tournament.
Ohio State
Much like Wisconsin, the Buckeyes season almost ended with Chris Holtmann getting canned. A Freshman-led team proved to be a challenge for Holtmann. Luckily, those Freshman are now Sophomores. Ohio State brought in another very good recruiting class, with four stars Scotty Middleton and Taison Chatman. The veteran leadership of Zed Key, Dale Bonner, and Jamison Battle should balance out the locker room nicely. The backcourt should be one of the better units in the Big Ten. Chatman, Bonner, Roddy Gayle Jr., and Bruce Thornton could all make an all-conference team. I have put the Buckeyes lower due to last year, but 2023 could be a bounce back season in Columbus.
Rutgers
As the Rutgers staff has turned the page to the class of 2024, their 2023 roster is lacking star power. The Scarlett Knights roster got gutted by the portal, with Paul Mulcahy and Cam Spencer both leaving the program. The conference’s best defender Caleb McConnell also played his last game at the RAC last year. All hope is not lost for Rutgers, as veteran big men Mawot Mag and Cliff Omoruyi should anchor another pesky defense. The offense is quite lackluster. Much of the playmaking responsibilities will be placed onto Derek Simpson’s shoulders. Simpson has been called “electric” by head coach Steve Pikiell. Rutgers just does not have the fire power currently to make a NCAA tournament.
Not Good
Nebraska
We’re going to keep this section short and sweet. I don’t think these teams have a legit shot to make the Tournament. Nebraska was a fun team last year towards the back half of the season. Keisei Tominaga captured my heart down the stretch. As a Bulls fan, watching a Fred Hoiberg offense gives me PTSD. I don’t expect this team to be much better than they were last year.
Michigan
What a fall from grace by the Wolverines. It’s not all Juwan Howard’s fault though. Michigan admissions proved to be a challenger for Howard in his portal efforts. Caleb Love committed to Michigan shortly, but had to decommit when admissions would not take his transfer credits. Michigan did get a couple transfers, but unfortunately it seems like they have a lot of the same players. It looks like a whole lot of meh for the Wolverines this year.
Northwestern
Losing Chase Audige is a bigger blow than most people are making it out to be. The defensive anchor of the Wildcats last year has moved onto the NBA. Not to mention, Chris Collins has only made the tournament TWICE in nearly a decade at Northwestern. Boo Buie and Ty Berry should be fun to watch, but look for Northwestern to revert to the mean this year.
Penn State
Micah Shrewsburry is gone, and so is every ounce of production from last year’s Penn State team. Jalen Pickett, Seth Lundy, Andrew Funk? All gone. Mike Rhoades did go portaling in his first offseason at Penn State. I believe in most of his transfers, it just might be too much to handle at one time in his first year. Ace Baldwin Jr. is a certified stud. D’Marco Dunn did not get a chance to shine last year at UNC. Former Final Four hero Puff Johnson also is at Penn State now. There is a slight chance they surprise again in the Big Ten, but I’ll have to see it to believe it.
Minnesota
This is flat out one of the worst rosters in the Power 6. Jamison Battle transferring out has left this team devoid of talent. Dawson Garcia and Cam Christie, younger brother of Max Christie, could bring some excitement to Minnesota, but not much. Minnesota is unfortunately the worst team in the Big Ten.
Conference Standings
1. Michigan State
2. Purdue
3. Maryland
4. Indiana
5. Wisconsin
6. Illinois
7. Iowa
8. Ohio State
9. Rutgers
10. Nebraska
11. Michigan
12. Northwestern
13. Penn State
14. Minnesota
Player of the Year: Zach Edey
It’s going to be hard for Zach Edey not to repeat as Big Ten Player of the Year. He is clearly the best player on an elite team within the conference. How is the favorite to win the Wooden Award not going to win his conference Player of the Year?
Freshman of the Year: Mackenzie Mgbako
My original prediction was Deshawn Harris-Smith. But with all of the reports coming out of Bloomington, Mgbako should have the largest role out of any Big Ten Freshman. As an elite shot-maker, I’m taking the Hoosier to win Freshman of the Year.
Stay tuned for the rest of our conference previews as we gear up for the college basketball season here.
